The Psychology of Human Misjudgment Remix (Part 2)

By Tony Clark, Founder, Resilience Tech-Forum, March 23, 2024

In part one of this remix of Charlie Munger’s essay titled, “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,” I explored the first five of Munger’s 25 tendencies.  The tendencies are purported to individually and collectively influence why we do what we do

In this second part, I present Munger’s next 5 tendencies:  Curiosity; Kantian Fairness; Envy/Jealousy; Reciprocation; and Influence-from-Mere-Association.  Recall that the checklist of human tendencies can be used to increase self-awareness, acknowledgement, and intentionality for better personal and societal outcomes*.

A quick note on the format: I provide a summary definition for each Munger stated tendency and then offer one or more songs from Beyonce, Rihanna, or Taylor, to amplify and disclose possible consequences of each tendency.  My hope remains that this alternate presentation will appeal to a younger audience and to those who are not technology or investing enthusiasts; enabling the benefit of Munger’s wisdom, without having to read and contemplate his essay in detail.

Regarding this publication, the decision to post this Munger remix in the Resilience Tech-Forum (RTF) blog is consistent with RTF’s goal to apply technology to the benefit of society.  And, specifically, regarding the technology angle, Google’s Gemini chatbot was consulted to help brainstorm songs, from the 3 songstresses, which best convey Munger’s enumerated tendencies.  Thus, the complete article is a curated popular music playlist that amplifies Munger’s wisdom concerning human misjudgment. 

Curiosity Tendencyis what motivates us to try new activities and seek new experiences.  Curiosity can help us to continue in face of the unknown.  It is why mystery can be so alluring or captivating.  However, absent judgment, curiosity as the expression goes “can kill the cat."

Kantian Fairness Tendency: named after philosopher Immanuel Kant, describes the principle whereby people naturally gravitate to behaviors that benefit a group, with the key assumption being that everyone in the group behaves the same way.  The flip-side of this tendency is that the inherent expectation of fairness can incite anger.  For example, if someone cuts in the front of a line, it is likely to elicit a quick reprimand by others in the group and possibly lead to a heated and potentially violent protest.

Munger asserts that the Envy/Jealousy Tendency is an evolutionary response to scarcity; arguing that this tendency is hard-encoded into us.  Examples include siblings fighting over a toy or an inheritance and having resentment towards those who have more than their fair share.

Reciprocation Tendency: is an ingrained urge to return favors, or disfavors.  From the positive side it may lead to greater cooperation within a group: strengthening relationships and promoting better social interactions.  On the negative side, manipulation (“caveat emptor”) and the escalation of hostilities may result.

Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency: is characterized by an association of one thing with another thing, with there being no real connection between the two things.  For example, an expert influencer may engender positive emotions for a product through mere association, and as a result greatly increase the sales of the product.  On the negative side, stereotyping can lead to the formation of false assumptions about someone based on their age, sex, race, education level, religion, wealth, et cetera

The third part of this article addresses tendencies 11 through 15 on Munger’s checklist: Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial; Excessive Self-Regard; Overoptimism; Deprival-Superreaction; and Social-Proof.

* A primary inquiry for Munger was how blind (or subconscious) obedience to tendency can lead to misjudgment and less than optimal outcomes.  From an evolutionary perspective, human tendencies clearly have in the past provided an advantage from a survivability perspective as well.  Tendencies themselves are neither good nor bad.  Conscious applications of our tendencies can be constructive (e.g., used for self-control purposes) or destructive (e.g., externally applied manipulation against our best interests).  Awareness and acknowledgment of tendency are keys.